LUNARTULIP LAB / DEEP DIVENVIDIA: Hard growth, costs on the balance sheet
FY27 Q2 revenue of $96.2B and Data Center growth of +117% settle the demand debate; the dispute is gross-margin path, $279B supply commitments and $108.5B guarantees.
Read the research →CANONICAL RESEARCH / LUNARTULIP DEEP DIVE
Begin with the research question.
Follow how evidence updates judgment.
COMPANY DEEP DIVES / 07
Company research that moves from financial facts to falsifiable judgment.
Each object fixes its as-of date, Claim IDs, Evidence Ledger, valuation scenarios and forward falsifiers. New evidence advances the version without overwriting the original information set.
Snowflake: Hard acceleration, soft attribution
Three quarters of accelerating product revenue near +37% is verifiable; the half-from-AI line is management attribution only.
Read the research →Cloudflare: Majority traffic is already machine
The 1,700% figure establishes that the traffic arrived. It says nothing about revenue per machine action: Cloudflare discloses no attributable revenue, no paid-request mix and no cross-product attach rate. The variable to underwrite is monetization density.
Read the research →Atlassian: After three catalysts, waiting for a revenue line
FY2026 revenue grew 26%; subscription ARR grew 23%. That gap is worth interrogating. Collaboration software has always billed headcount, and AI coding compresses headcount while manufacturing work state.
Read the research →Palantir: Hard commercial proof, zero valuation slack
Commercial revenue, TCV and margin accelerated together in Q2, and that much is settled. What still needs proving is where the money sits. Innovation budgets get cut in a downturn. Operating budgets get defended.
Read the research →Financials at the peak, capital flooding in: Micron's escape-from-cycle thesis enters a falsifiable window
Near-term price and allocation dynamics can still deliver, but the variable that decides whether the cycle is broken is not the next print. It is what happens to price, margin and commodity linkage once capex becomes qualified supply.
Read the research →Contracts raise the floor; the market prices the peak: Stress-testing SanDisk and the NAND capital cycle
Contracting is already visible on the balance sheet, but the floor has not been stress-tested through oversupply. The gap between reported and adjusted free cash flow is the first bridge in judging whether the annuity narrative can hold.
Read the research →THEME STUDIES / 03
Cross-sectional research across distinct value-capture paths.
Theme Studies test one shared question across companies, using control cases to distinguish industry narrative from attributable economic value.
Can HBM break the traditional cycle valuation? The next alpha may sit in the revenue-to-cash capture gap
Demand, pricing, yield and capacity are already crowded debates. The more testable expectations gap is whether product-revenue growth still leaves repeatable cash after customer funding, joint-venture contributions and new capacity investment.
Read the theme study →Is the baton really changing hands? Repricing memory and optics after a global reporting season
The second derivative of spot is rising while the second derivative of contract prices is falling. Structural memory profit lands first with the constraint owners, NAND amplifies the cycle, and the Chinese module makers amplify inventory timing. In optics the reported numbers are still strong and the margin for error has thinned. The tidy version — memory takes the baton, optics hands it over — is not what the global reporting season produced.
Read the theme study →From AI usage to value capture: a five-company cross-section
PLTR, NET and TEAM sit at three points on the same path: budget confirmed, billing unit unproven, billing basis itself in question. DDOG and APP serve as controls, showing what completed transmission looks like in the financials.
Read the theme study →How to use the Deep Dives
Use these Deep Dives to evaluate Lunartulip’s work on companies, industry transmission, expectation gaps and risk boundaries. Point-in-time context and later corrections help separate the original information set and thesis from evidence that emerged afterward.
Continue with AlphaMap
AlphaMap starts from industry causality, value transmission and critical connections. Its public, falsifiable research maps remain separate from the company and theme cards on this page.
Explore AlphaMap →FROM PUBLIC PROOF TO CONTINUOUS RESEARCH
Choose delivery for people, agents or systematic research.
Public Deep Dives are the citable proof surface. Continuous research, machine-readable interfaces and research data are scoped by coverage, use and licensing.
Always-On Research Desk
Continuous research, state changes and validation points for professional investors and institutions.
Explore Research Desk →AI-native Research Framework Workshop
Six working sessions to install an existing research method as an operating system.
Explore the workshop →Research API & Alternative Datasets
Bring point-in-time Research Objects, claims, evidence and state data into internal systems.
Discuss machine-readable delivery →